1 thought on “The industry that has the greatest impact on the real economy on bonds”
Marty
In the first aspect, the real economy is weak, and commercial banks will definitely face the pressure of worsening asset quality. At present, banks generally feel lack of good customers and good projects. Not only is it difficult for corporate loans, it is difficult for banks to loan. Both situations are coexisting. On the other hand, with the advancement of interest rate marketization and the opening of the bank market access and the development of Internet finance, the spread of bank deposits and loans has narrowed rapidly, operating risks are increasing, and banks’ profit margins have been significantly compressed. Therefore, the ability to resolve non -performing assets is decreasing.
The second aspects, the degree of foaming in the financial market in the past two years is relatively high, especially the credit risk of the bond market is accelerating exposure. Some corporate bonds issued in the early period have entered the peak period of redemption in the next few years. Because financial institutions hold 80%of corporate bonds in the bond market, if the defaults of corporate bond markets are frequent, the expansion of the scale of breach of contract may cause heavy pressure on financial institutions.
The third aspect is that the risk of shadow banks continues to increase. A contradictory thing: If the intensity of the governance shadow banking may have a bad impact on the real economy. If shadow banks shrink sharply, it will also have a bad impact on the real economy.
The fourth aspect is deepening the financial industry’s dependence on real estate. Once the price of real estate collapses, if a large number of people who exceed their loan repayment ability have discarded loans, and the depreciation of the mortgage of the bank, and the decline in the valuation of the relevant assets held by financial institutions, it will bring the stability of the financial system to the stability of the financial system. Intellectual.
Baship of the current financial risk of my country’s financial risks. Zhang Chenghui believes that specifically, first, the pressure of bank adverse rates and non -performing loans in the short term will continue. In addition, some local protectionist methods adopted by local governments will also increase bank risks. Essence
The impact of the bond market on the real economy is far greater than the stock market. This has not attracted sufficient attention. In 2015, the financing amount of the real economic bond was 3.9 times that of stock financing. The balance of corporate bonds was 3.2 times that of non -financial enterprises’ domestic stocks. The total size was far greater than the stock market. The impact on the financial market was far greater than the stock market. Because a large number of credit bonds are held by some financial institutions such as banks, insurance institutions, and investment funds, if a large area of risk exposure in the bond market is prone to chain reactions.
Third, the risk of shadow banks is unlikely to have systemic risks in the short term. The bank also has a strong motivation to develop shadow banks and has enough motivation.
Fourth, once a cliff -like decline occurs in the real estate market, if more than 30%of the decline, the financial chain may have problems.
Finally, Zhang Chenghui concluded that the possibility of systemic financial risks in the past one or two years is very small, especially when there is no black swan incident. There are several reasons: First, after years of transformation in China, after years of transformation, the share system transformation and development already have the ability to resist risks that are completely different from the 1990s; second, financial regulation and control The risk management ability of the department is also stronger than in the 1990s; third, as long as there is no excellent fluctuations, banks have a strong ability to resist the risk of asset portfolios; Has a lot of space.
In the first aspect, the real economy is weak, and commercial banks will definitely face the pressure of worsening asset quality. At present, banks generally feel lack of good customers and good projects. Not only is it difficult for corporate loans, it is difficult for banks to loan. Both situations are coexisting. On the other hand, with the advancement of interest rate marketization and the opening of the bank market access and the development of Internet finance, the spread of bank deposits and loans has narrowed rapidly, operating risks are increasing, and banks’ profit margins have been significantly compressed. Therefore, the ability to resolve non -performing assets is decreasing.
The second aspects, the degree of foaming in the financial market in the past two years is relatively high, especially the credit risk of the bond market is accelerating exposure. Some corporate bonds issued in the early period have entered the peak period of redemption in the next few years. Because financial institutions hold 80%of corporate bonds in the bond market, if the defaults of corporate bond markets are frequent, the expansion of the scale of breach of contract may cause heavy pressure on financial institutions.
The third aspect is that the risk of shadow banks continues to increase. A contradictory thing: If the intensity of the governance shadow banking may have a bad impact on the real economy. If shadow banks shrink sharply, it will also have a bad impact on the real economy.
The fourth aspect is deepening the financial industry’s dependence on real estate. Once the price of real estate collapses, if a large number of people who exceed their loan repayment ability have discarded loans, and the depreciation of the mortgage of the bank, and the decline in the valuation of the relevant assets held by financial institutions, it will bring the stability of the financial system to the stability of the financial system. Intellectual.
Baship of the current financial risk of my country’s financial risks. Zhang Chenghui believes that specifically, first, the pressure of bank adverse rates and non -performing loans in the short term will continue. In addition, some local protectionist methods adopted by local governments will also increase bank risks. Essence
The impact of the bond market on the real economy is far greater than the stock market. This has not attracted sufficient attention. In 2015, the financing amount of the real economic bond was 3.9 times that of stock financing. The balance of corporate bonds was 3.2 times that of non -financial enterprises’ domestic stocks. The total size was far greater than the stock market. The impact on the financial market was far greater than the stock market. Because a large number of credit bonds are held by some financial institutions such as banks, insurance institutions, and investment funds, if a large area of risk exposure in the bond market is prone to chain reactions.
Third, the risk of shadow banks is unlikely to have systemic risks in the short term. The bank also has a strong motivation to develop shadow banks and has enough motivation.
Fourth, once a cliff -like decline occurs in the real estate market, if more than 30%of the decline, the financial chain may have problems.
Finally, Zhang Chenghui concluded that the possibility of systemic financial risks in the past one or two years is very small, especially when there is no black swan incident. There are several reasons: First, after years of transformation in China, after years of transformation, the share system transformation and development already have the ability to resist risks that are completely different from the 1990s; second, financial regulation and control The risk management ability of the department is also stronger than in the 1990s; third, as long as there is no excellent fluctuations, banks have a strong ability to resist the risk of asset portfolios; Has a lot of space.